News article, 24. February 2023

Trends for pig meat in 2023

Pig slaughtering is expected to decline by 10-15% in the first half of 2023. One of the factors is the closure of many finisher farms in Denmark the past year.

Photo: Danish Agriculture & Food Council

According to Karsten Flemin, Market Analyst, Analysis & Statistics for the Danish Agriculture & Food Council, several trends characterise pig production and exports at the start of 2023. First, pig slaughtering is expected to decline by 10-15% in the first half of 2023. One of the factors, including the closure of many finisher farms in Denmark in the past year. Closures that have come on top of an otherwise stable level over the past two years.

Lowest pig population in 25 years
As in other European countries, there is also a decline in the Danish pig population. The pig population in Denmark stood at 11.5 million on 1 January 2023, i.e. 1.6 million fewer pigs than at the same time last year. In one year, therefore, the pig population has fallen by 12.2 per cent, and is now the lowest in 25 years.

Export trends
While the pig population is declining in Europe, a rebuilding pig production programme is taking place in China and in other Asian markets badly affected by African Swine Fever. This means a decline in pig meat exports from the EU to these Asian markets. This is in addition to increased competition from US pig meat as a result of the fall in US pig meat prices.

Exports to the Asian markets are thus at a very low level at the start of 2023.

Consumer trends
In a survey of consumer trends carried out by Norstat for the Danish Agriculture & Food Council, a clear focus on offers and cheaper food products is emerging. Also, more than one in three consumers has started to take measures to avoid food waste. As for pig meat, 40% of respondents said that this particular item has become more expensive over the past few months, which has also meant that one in five has bought a cheaper variant of pig meat than the one they usually buy.