Photo: Danish Agriculture & Food Council

News article, 21. May 2024

A glimpse into future pig production

European pig production experienced a general downturn in 2023. What is the outlook for the rest of 2024?

Looking back to 2023: decline in European production

The EU’s pig population continued its downward trend – by 0.6% - in 2023. This was despite a stabilisation compared to 2022. By the end of 2023, Spain remained the leading producer and, contrary to the general trend across the EU, saw a slight expansion in its pig population during the year under review (34.5 million pigs). This was followed by Germany – 21.2 million pigs, France – 11.8 mi0llion pigs and Denmark 11.4 million pigs.

The decline in the respective pig populations also had an impact on slaughtering figures which fell by 7.3% compared to 2022. A reduction in slaughtering numbers - and therefore in pig meat production - was apparent in all EU countries. The most significant fall was recorded in Holland (13.1%), owing to the sharply declining pig population, and in Denmark (18.7%) primarily due to live exports.

A glimpse into 2024 – less production and consumption of pig meat

2024 is expected to see a modest decline in pig meat production across the EU and globally – in China in particular. However, pig production is expected to expand in the U.S. and Brazil, with a slightly downward trend in pig meat consumption generally.

Due to the fact that supply is hardly sufficient to cover demand, the high price levels for finishers are expected to continue. The first months of this year saw a slight uplift in trade, but for the rest of the year, demand is expected to be barely met.

In general, the outlook is for increased activity within international trade. Although China’s imports are likely to decline as a result of trade restrictions, China will remain the world’s largest importer of pig meat. with a fifth of the overall total. On the export side, the EU is expected to ship the largest quantities to other countries, with a market share of just over a third.

Increasing legal requirements for livestock farming continue to present challenges and uncertainty for pig producers and rising energy costs are having a negative impact on profitability.