Food cluster’s exports surpass milestone in 2024

While rising food prices are driving growth in food exports, there are stable and increasing sales of bio-based products. The recession in the European agro industry is leading to a decline in the export of agro technology. 

The Danish Agriculture & Food Industry estimates that food cluster exports will top DKK 202 billion in 2024 which will make 2024 the first time for exports to hit DKK 200 billion. In 2023, exports reached DKK 199.8 billion – very close to the symbolic threshold.  

The food cluster’s exports cover a broad portfolio of products ranging from food products, bio-based products and agro technology.

Food exports are in growth
The export of food products was the clear driver of growth in 2024. Rising food prices have boosted export value across multiple categories. Exports of dairy products, for example, are expected to rise by 4 per cent based on the rising prices of dairy products.

By contrast, pig exports have been adversely affected by falling pig prices. Prices for both finishers and piglets have been falling since the beginning of the year, but they have been fairly stable since the summer. Higher slaughtering numbers and an increase in exports of live piglets are among the reasons why total exports of pig meat have risen by 5 per cent.

Grain exports are expected to fall by 36 per cent as the result of poor harvests in 2023 and 2024. In the harvest years of 2023 and 2024, grain production was 22 per cent and 16 per cent below normal. At the same time, grain prices were, on average, lower in 2024 compared to 2023, which was a drag on grain exports when calculated in kroner.

Steady progress for bio-based products
Exports of bio-based products, which cover feed, seeds and enzymes, are expected to rise by 1.5 per cent in 2024. This growth is based on steady progress throughout the first eight months of the year, which is expected to continue.  

European agro-industry is in recession
The European agro-industry is in decline due to large stockpiles and low growth, which is affecting Danish exports of agro-technology. Against this background, exports of agro-technology are expected to fall by 5 per cent in 2024.  

Progress and decline in the food cluster’s largest markets

Germany is unequivocally the food cluster’s largest market. Exports to Germany are expected to amount to DKK 31.2 billion in 2024, which is a decline of 7 per cent compared to 2023. In fact, there is weak or negative growth in most of the food cluster’s products to the country. The German economy is at a standstill as a result of falling demand, increasing raw material prices and higher energy prices. Economic stagnation is affecting Danish exports to the country, both in terms of consumer goods and products for industry.  

The forecast sets out a moderate decline in sales to Sweden - the second-largest market - of 2 per cent. The majority of export categories are experiencing a slight decline, which mirrors the challenges of the Swedish economy. After two quarters of negative growth, Sweden is now in the midst of a technical recession, which is having an adverse effect on Danish exports.  

By contrast, there is progress in the Polish market, where exports are expected to rise by 4 per cent. In the main, growth is being driven by exports of live pigs, which has put Poland among the three largest export markets for the Danish food cluster.

The forecast anticipates a modest rise in exports of 1 per cent to the UK. Export trends have been stable despite the fact that at the end of 2024, the UK introduced a new approach to importing food from the EU. Although the new regulations involve a risk categorisation of products, they have had no notable effect on Danish food exporters.

Exports to Norway are expected to increase by 8 per cent. This is mainly due to an uplift in exports of fish oil, combined with price increases for this particular product.