News article, 28. September 2023

Modest rise in the number of Danish finishers

A 2.6% growth in the pig population and a 6.2% growth in the number of finishers in Denmark in the previous quarter may be a sign that the market is turning.

Photo: Danish Agriculture & Food Council

For the first time since the end of 2021, the number of pigs in Denmark is rising. Although modest, this may be an indication that the lowest point has been reached. Looking at the year-on-year trend, there was still a decline of around 1.1 million pigs in the total pig population over the past year, but the recent quarterly rise in the total population of 2.6% may be a good sign. The increase is needed in a market where recently published figures from Eurostat also show a general decline in the number of pigs across several European countries. This includes Denmark when compared to the population in May 2022, but according to Karsten Flemin, market analyst at the Danish Agriculture & Food Council, this may indicate that the trend is beginning to turn.

"I think we’ve reached the bottom and are on the way up again. It has been more profitable to produce pigs since the turn of the year, which is why some producers have bought new breeding stock,” explains Karsten Flemin. He does not believe, however, that we’re looking at a sharp rise in the Danish pig population, but a steady, positive trend. “There is no boom on the way, but partly because feed prices have decreased again and supply has fallen while demand has increased, the earnings of the remaining pig producers have improved.”

According to Karsten Flemin, the reason for the population decline has been the rise in feed and energy costs. That these prices have now fallen has improved producers’ earnings. The prospect of a population increase is therefore on the cards.

The latest quarter’s rise in the pig population has also had a positive effect on slaughtering. Digging down into the numbers, it is clear that finishers account for a relatively large proportion of the increase. The population ranged from approx. 2.2 million on 1 April 2023 to 2.3 million on 1 July 2023, corresponding to a rise of 6.2%. According to Flemin, the rise in the number of finishers may be the first sign that the situation is beginning to improve and that the decline in slaughtering has bottomed out.