Pig diseases will continue to be a major factor affecting global production of pig meat, according to recently published reports from the Rabobank and the FAO.
“ Disease continues to be the focus of global pork markets” was the headline of the latest quarterly market report issued by Rabobank. The report predicted higher prices as the spread of the porcine epidemic diarrhoea virus (PEDv) in North America and SE Asia will have a material effect on pork supplies. Although PEDv appears to be tailing off in the US, the virus is spreading in Canada and Mexico and is impacting supplies in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. Rabobank estimate that US pork production could decline by 6-7% during 2014.
Pork prices in Russia have increased significantly since the ban on importsof EU pig meat, following the discovery of African Swine Fever (ASF) in the wild boar population in Poland and Lithuania. However, the overall press on pig supplies has been eased to some extent by the ‘supply glut’ in China.
The biannual 'Food Outlook' report from the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) provides a short term forecast for the main food commodities on global markets. Its conclusions tallied with the Rabobank view that the spread of pig diseases would be a major factor determining the level of global pork supplies during 2014. However, the FAO forecast that global pig supplies would reach 115.5 million tonnes in 2014 – a 1% increase on the previous year, but the additional supplies would mainly occur in developing markets and this development would most likely be matched by increased demand in these areas.