As more evidence emerged of likely non-compliance with the EU stall ban, a new BPEX report forecast a significant rise in pork prices due to declining production across the EU.
Information released by the EU Commission revealed the possible extent of non-compliance among the various EU Member States with the new regulations banning the use of traditional sow stalls. The report was based on information supplied to them by each Member State:
- Three Member States have already complied (including UK, Sweden)
- Nine Member States expect to comply (including Denmark, Germany)
- Seven Member States expect to be at least 90% compliant
- Five Member States expect to be at least 70 – 89% compliant
- Three Member States have no provisions for compliance – current levels of compliance estimated at 28% - 60%
BPEX launched a report examining some possible market scenarios following the EU ban on use of sow stalls for pregnant sows in January 2013. In each case examined, a decline in EU production was forecast with a commensurate increase in EU market prices.
The launch of the report resulted in a significant amount of trade and national press coverage predicting a rise in bacon prices following the implementation of the new rules, drawing parallels with the current situation in the egg market : see The Grocer Daily Mirror.
The report also expressed the view that Denmark will comply with the new regulations – with the strong enforcement via the Danish authorities' welfare checks and the independently audited farm assurance schemes.